Forex. Jak zarobić na Indeksie Nędzy


poniedziałek 19/03/2012
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Słyszeliście może o najbardziej zadłużonym człowieku na świecie? Ma 35 lat, mieszka we Francji, nazywa się Jérôme Kerviel, jest pracownikiem niewielkiego przedsiębiorstwa informatycznego, zarabia ok. 2 tysięcy euro miesięcznie i – według wyroku sądowego, który zapadł w październiku 2010 r.  – musi zwrócić bankowi prawie 5 miliardów euro. Całej wypłaty oddawać nie będzie, gdyż chroni go prawo, więc zwrot kapitału zajmie mu 177536 lat, jeśli dożyje tej chwili [1]. Są jednak jeszcze odsetki: narastają o ok. 80 tysięcy euro dziennie. Kerviel został skazany na dożywotnie ubóstwo.

 

Kiedyś zarabiał lepiej niż dobrze.  Był pracownikiem wielkiego (obecnego również w Polsce) banku Société Générale. Nasza prasa określała jego ówczesny zawód jako „makler”, ale właściwie był traderem (dosł. handlarzem, spekulantem), gdyż dokonywał głównie operacji pozagiełdowych, na tzw. rynku niezorganizowanym. Na zlecenie banku handlował tzw. futures – kontraktami terminowymi z rodziny tzw. derywatów finansowych. Owe derywaty są niespodziewanie trafnie nazywane „instrumentami finansowymi”: trafnie, bo na nich głównie się gra. Konkretnie Kerviel grał futures przede wszystkim na indeksach europejskich giełd – brytyjskim FTSE (nazywany „footsie”), niemieckim DAX i ogólnoeuropejskim Eurostoxx. Indeksy wyrażają się nieustannie zmieniającymi się wykresami – Kerviel zakładał, że w określonych momentach kreseczka pójdzie w górę lub w dół – tak jakby w zwykłej ruletce stawiał na czarne lub czerwone. Tu na chwilę przerwiemy historię Kerviela, gdyż w dzisiejszych czasach każdy może zostać rynkowym spekulantem.

 

Bądź bogaczem, zostań traderem!

 

Gra na derywatach (tj. pochodnych od rzeczywistych aktywów, z reguły bez praw właścicielskich do nich) stała się codziennością w środowiskach finansowych mniej więcej trzydzieści lat temu (pionierem było londyńskie City). Wraz z rosnącą deregulacją rynków i rozwojem Internetu zaczęła obejmować coraz szersze kręgi. Dziś nie ma w Polsce internauty, który wcześniej czy później nie natknąłby się na reklamy „forexu”.  „Zarabiaj duże pieniądze na handlu walutami, ropą, złotem”, „Nawet 100% zysku na minutę!”, „Pracuj tylko godzinę dziennie”, „Wejdź w najbardziej dochodowy biznes na świecie”, „Inwestując 1000 zł możesz zarabiać 30o zł dziennie”, „40% w 40 dni!” „25 listopada 2010 r. nasi klienci zarobili 10 milionów dolarów na spadku euro!”…

 

Forex to angielski skrót od rynku wymiany walut. Mówi się „grać na foreksie”, gdyż większość transakcji na internetowych platformach transakcyjnych to „handel walutami”, ale gra się tutaj (w reklamach mówi się raczej o „inwestowaniu” lub „biznesie”) również na wykresach cen surowców i poziomów indeksów giełdowych. Internetowi brokerzy (pośrednicy i organizatorzy gry), którzy mogą mieć swoją siedzibę na egzotycznej wyspie lub w rodzimym banku, dostarczają za darmo platformy transakcyjne (programy komputerowe wyświetlające na żywo wykresy odpowiednich cen, zapewniające również bezpośrednie połącznie między internautą a brokerem) wraz z krótkimi, prostymi instrukcjami obsługi. Te platformy to albo rosyjski program MetaTrader, albo jedna z jego modyfikacji. Jeszcze klika lat temu, by wejść do gry trzeba było mieć co najmniej kilka tysięcy złotych, dziś wystarczy nawet 100. Brokerom wszystko jedno, bo i tak zarabiają przede wszystkim na obrocie, tj. zależnie od liczby transakcji zawieranych przez internautów – od każdej biorą opłatę, tzw. spread.

 

System opłat zmusza do „daytradingu”, tj. otwierania i zamykania pozycji  w ciągu jednego dnia, stąd zdecydowana większość transakcji odbywa się w ciągu kilku godzin lub nawet minut. Mówi się o „otwieraniu i zamykaniu pozycji”, gdyż klasyczne pojęcia kupna i sprzedaży nie oddają natury tych operacji. Owszem, wszystko jest sprowadzone do ewangelicznej prostoty: kiedy naciska się na przycisk „kupuj” znaczy to tyle, co „stawiam na to, że wykres ceny pójdzie do góry”, natomiast „sprzedaj” oznacza liczenie na spadek – potem wystarczy „zamknąć pozycję” w odpowiednim momencie. Internauta może zarabiać niezależnie od tego, czy dana wartość rośnie czy dołuje. To dokładnie ten sam mechanizm, co stawianie na czarne lub czerwone w ruletce.

 

Prawo i lewo

 

Niewielu internautów wie, że tak naprawdę nie handluje walutami ani nawet „ropą”. Wszyscy oni znaleźli się w świecie derywatów. Owe sztuczne przedmioty obrotu są teoretycznie powiązane z realnymi wskaźnikami finansowymi bądź papierami wartościowymi, ale właściwie są tylko ich daleką pochodną – wyrazem liczbowym. Konkretnie Polacy grający na foreksie obracają szczególnym, najbardziej niebezpiecznym na świecie rodzajem derywatów – kontraktami CFD (Contract for difference – kontrakt różnic kursowych).  Są one już zakazane w Stanach Zjednoczonych, ale nieoczekiwanie europejskie ustawodawstwo okazuje się bardziej liberalne. Reklamy foreksu można obejrzeć sobie nawet na kanale Euronews: estońska spółka brokerska, która je wykupiła, działa też i reklamuje się w Polsce.

 

Wszytko to jest możliwe dzięki ustawie o grach hazardowych z 2009 r., która zmieniła jeden z przepisów ustawy o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi: „Transakcja, której przedmiotem jest nabycie lub zbycie niebędących papierami wartościowymi instrumentów finansowych dopuszczonych do obrotu zorganizowanego, lub która prowadzi do powstania takich instrumentów, nie stanowi gry ani zakładu w rozumieniu przepisów ustawy z dnia 23 kwietnia 1964 r. – Kodeks cywilny, ani też gry losowej lub zakładu wzajemnego w rozumieniu przepisów o grach hazardowych, nawet jeżeli według wyraźnej lub dorozumianej woli stron rzeczywiste spełnienie wzajemnych świadczeń jest wyłączone, a tylko jedna ze stron jest obowiązana zapłacić różnicę między umówioną ceną sprzedaży a ceną rynkową w czasie wykonania umowy” [2]. Dzięki temu, że wszystkie możliwe derywaty znalazły się w jednym worku, a według definicji „obrotu zorganizowanego”, może się on odbywać zarówno na rynku regulowanym , jak i w „alternatywnym systemie obrotu” (czyli mogą to być rynki pozagiełdowe, niezorganizowane), brokerzy mogą bez problemu odbierać klientelę internetowym kasynom (których reklama jest  zakazana).

 

Rozkosze tradingu

 

Brokerzy internetowego foreksu, tak samo jak internetowe kasyna, oferują darmowe konta demonstracyjne z fikcyjną, sporą sumą pieniędzy, elektroniczne gadżety w prezencie i coś, czego nie oferują nawet kasyna, choć i one „dają” na początek tzw. bonusy. Przewagę zapewnia foreksowi zaiste czarodziejski mnożnik, który nawet bezrobotnemu od razu pozwoli poczuć się bogatym. Chodzi o tzw. dźwignię finansową zwaną w finansowym slangu  „lewarowaniem”, dość świeży wynalazek finansistów stosowany na coraz szerszą skalę (tu oznacza on wirtualne kredytowanie, w realnej gospodarce to kredytowanie wielokrotnie przekraczające wartość aktywów własnych i przyszłych dochodów pożyczkobiorcy – idealny sposób na zniewolenie długiem):  jeśli internauta wpłaci 100 zł, a dźwignia wynosi 100, ma on nagle do dyspozycji 10 tysięcy. Może ich użyć oczywiście tylko do grania.

 

I oto przeżywa swoje pierwsze ekscytujące dreszcze: wydaje mu się, że wszedł na „największy rynek świata” i z zapartym tchem śledzi wykres – musi tylko poprawnie zakładać, że kreseczka będzie w ciągu paru minut, czy godzin, szła w przewidzianym przezeń kierunku. Na giełdzie ceny mogą wahać się o kilka lub nawet kilkanaście procent, tymczasem ceny „produktów finansowych” oferowanych przez internetowych brokerów potrafią całymi dniami zmieniać się najwyżej o promile – a mimo to dają wykresy gwałtowniejsze niż EKG. Internauci walczą o „pipsy”, tj. o pożądaną zmianę piątej cyfry w cenie czy punktacji „produktu”. Np. cena najpopularniejszej pary walutowej EUR/USD (w dolarach za euro) może wynosić w jakimś momencie 1.3628, a jeśli „inwestor” zamiast walut zechce grać na indeksie londyńskiej giełdy – 5372.7. W przypadku walut znaczy to, że nawet jeśli cena zmieni się o kilkadziesiąt pipsów, zakłady dotyczą zmian w granicach jednego centa amerykańskiego. Mimo to, z powodu „lewarowania”, można na tym zarobić lub wszystko stracić w pół godziny.

 

Etapy porażki

 

Kiedy internauta zaczyna przegrywać, zwraca mu się uwagę, że właściwie nie chodzi tu o prostą zależność między drogą wykresu a dwoma przyciskami na ekranie, musi np. robić  tzw. analizę fundamentalną, tj. znać wskaźniki ekonomiczne różnych krajów, śledzić giełdy i wydarzenia polityczne, by połapać się, jaki może być trend. Problem polega na tym, że nie znalazł się jeszcze na świecie ekonomista, który mógłby w dowolnym momencie wyjaśnić, co konkretnie wpłynęło na zmianę ceny pary walutowej o kilkanaście pipsów w ciągu dwóch godzin. Dziś światowy rynek wymiany walut to ponad 4 biliony (tysiące miliardów) dolarów dziennych transakcji i z tego tylko 0,2% wiąże się z realną gospodarką (produkcja, usługi, handel międzynarodowy, inwestycje zagraniczne, turystyka) [3]. Cała reszta nieustannie krąży po łączach elektronicznych między bankami i wielkimi funduszami spekulacyjnymi.  Robić analizę fundamentalną na rzecz amatorskiego internetowego foreksu to trochę tak, jakby w mglisty dzień odgadywać z obserwacji ruchów idącego słonia, w którą stronę poruszy mu się włosek na końcu trąby.

 

Kiedy więc internauta dalej źle stawia, radzi mu się zacząć „analizę techniczną”, tj. wpatrywanie się w sam włosek, w wykres. Internauta poznaje różne formy wykresów (oferowane za darmo), jak niemal metafizyczne „japońskie świece”, uczy się o „liniach oporu” i „wsparcia”, by lepiej wywróżyć los włoska. Najczęściej dalej gubi się w decyzjach, więc instaluje w swojej platformie różne (darmowe) programy bądź skrypty, zwane EA (od Expert Advisor), które te decyzje  jakoś zautomatyzują. Olbrzymia większość grających na foreksie podlega temu samemu zjawisku psychicznemu, co większość graczy w kasynie: kontynuuje przegrywającą pozycję w nadziei szybkiego odwrócenia losu, które pozwoli nadrobić straty. W ruletce polega to np. na stawianiu na czarne podwojonych sum, podczas gdy pada czerwone – w oczekiwaniu, że padnie czarne, zanim skończą się pieniądze. To prymitywny system Martingale’a, który w końcu nieuchronnie prowadzi do totalnej porażki. W Internecie reklamuje się go jako niezawodny sposób na „rozbicie kasyna”, lecz warto pamiętać, że owe (nielegalne) reklamy umieszczają kasyna. W forexie nieświadomi gracze również stosują Martingale’a. Inne strategie stosowane w ruletce, np. wykorzystujące ciągi liczb Fibonacciego (tylko przedłużają grę), są „fabrycznie” dołączone do foreksowych platform transakcyjnych, jako opcje dla „inwestorów”.

 

Kiedy to wszystko nie działa, przed zdesperowanym graczem stoją ciągle nowe możliwości: może na przykład kupić robota, który całkowicie przejmie  ciężar gry, z otwieraniem i zamykaniem pozycji włącznie. Takie programy komputerowe kosztują od 100 do kilkuset dolarów, obiecując w zamian np. „milion dolarów w rok”. Ich reklamie towarzyszą często słowa sugerujące nadzwyczajną sztuczną inteligencję, jak „sieci neuronowe, rekurencyjne, autoasocjacyjne”, „fuzzy logic”, „skuteczna probabilistyka” itp., ale chodzi tu przede wszystkim o znane, „uśredniające” modele matematyczne – wiele z nich potrafi przedłużać grę. Przedłużałyby zresztą grę w nieskończoność, gdyby istniało 50% szansy wygranej przy wyborze między czarnym a czerwonym, jednak jak w ruletce istnieje „zielone zero” przechylające tę szansę na stronę kasyna, tak w foreksie istnieje spread, każdorazowo pobierany przez brokera. Roboty to nie jest dobre rozwiązanie. Jest coś, co matematycznie najściślej łączy ruletkę i forex: 95% internetowych graczy w końcu przegrywa wszystkie „zainwestowane” pieniądze. Czas wrócić do historii najbardziej zadłużonego człowieka na świecie.

 

Derywat nędzy

 

Wielkie banki nigdy nie grają tak, jak internetowi gracze, którzy zresztą nie mają dostępu do odpowiednich informacji ani naprawdę wielkich pieniędzy, by wygrywać. Jérôme Kerviel został ukarany właśnie za to, że zachowywał się jak „trader internetowy”, hazardzista, który naraża byt całej rodziny, czyli tutaj banku. Owszem, jego zadaniem była gra derywatami na indeksach, ale z wykorzystaniem techniki arbitrażu, tj. trzymając się porównania z ruletką, pokrywaniem każdej ryzykownej pozycji jej odwrotnością – stawianiem jednocześnie na czarne i czerwone na różnych stołach – zarobek (pod warunkiem zaangażowania olbrzymich sum) bierze się z minimalnych różnic kursowych tego samego derywatu na różnych rynkach. Tymczasem Kerviel postawił prawie 50 miliardów euro bez pokrycia, tak wierzył w swoją szczęśliwą gwiazdę. Kiedy bank to odkrył,  po cichu, w ciągu trzech dni zamknął wszystkie zakłady Kerviela, tracąc 5 miliardów – i to jest właśnie jego dług. Jego adwokat złożył odwołanie od wyroku sądu (trader został też skazany na trzy lata więzienia), ale wynik pozostaje niepewny.

 

Istnieje fundamentalna różnica między pozycją internetowego gracza, a wielkimi graczami. Podczas gdy on próbuje wszelkimi sposobami i z pomocą licznych „strategii” odgadnąć kierunek wykresu, wielkie instytucje finansowe uprawiają „prawdziwą  spekulację”, tj. po prostu wpływają na wykres. Z pomocą dużych pieniędzy można to zrobić choćby na kilkanaście sekund (wtedy jak szalone pracują roboty transakcyjne w bankach i funduszach hedgingowych ), np. poprzez zmasowany atak na jakąś walutę bądź stworzenie odpowiedniej informacji, rozpowszechnionej przez media lub tylko wśród innych wielkich spekulantów. Oczywiście to źle wpływa na realną gospodarkę, ale póki co nie ma siły politycznej, która mogłaby to zmienić.

W świecie  finansów istnieją derywaty pogodowe – umożliwiające spekulację na wykresie temperatury i opadów w określonym miejscu. Właściwie dużo łatwiej można utworzyć instrument finansowy od jednego z najbardziej znanych wskaźników gospodarczych: nasza prasa ekonomiczna nazywa go Indeksem Nędzy (z ang. Misery Index), a GUS „wskaźnikiem ubóstwa”.  Jest to (zbyt prosta dla niektórych ekonomistów) suma procentowych udziałów poziomu bezrobocia i inflacji. Wyraża się on w punktach (dla Polski w styczniu 2012 r. wynosił on 16,7, rok wcześniej – 13,3) i jest ceniony jako obraz sytuacji społeczno-gospodarczej, gdyż wykazuje zadziwiającą korelację z poziomami przestępczości, liczbą samobójstw i m.in. wzrostem (lub spadkiem) uczestnictwa w hazardzie. Tak się właśnie składa, że w Europa wraz z rosnącym kryzysem przeżywa wielki nawrót hazardu – jakby coraz więcej ludzi liczyło już tylko na cud. I jeśli nie ma jeszcze „derywatu nędzy”, to chyba tylko dlatego, że nie da się go użyć do daytradingu.

[1] AFP, Reuters, 5 października 2010 r.
[2] Ustawa z dnia 19 listopada 2009 r. o grach hazardowych, Dziennik Ustaw nr 201, poz. 1540.
[3] Zob. François Chesnais, Bezprawne długi. Jak banki sterują demokracją, tłum. Lucyna Mazur, Jerzy Szygiel, Książka i Prasa, Warszawa 2012

Le Monde Diplomatique – edycja polska, 3/2012

 

Rysunki (od góry):

Oleg Dergachov – Kanada
Sławomir Łuczyński – Polska
Jitet Koestana – Indonezja
Origone Franco – Włochy


Komentarze 212 Dodaj komentarz

 
  1. Szanowny Panie Jerzy,

    Abstrahując od tematu tego oraz innych pańskich wpisów / artykułów, muszę przyznać, że są one niezwykle wciągające i, niezależnie od tematyki, czyta się je z ogromną przyjemnością!

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  2. Nie widziałem jeszcze tak prostego w odbiorze wytłumaczenia pseudo skomplikowanych „mechanizmów finansowych wolnego rynku”. Brawo i dziękuję.

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  3. Również dziękuję, i już nawet nie pytam, dlaczego Pańskich tekstów nie cytują główne strony portali „biznesowych” itp., bo tam aż się roi od reklam wspomnianej przez Pana ruletki…
    Ciekawe, czy i kiedy pojawią się statystyki ludzkich dramatów tych, którzy dali się „wkręcić” ?
    Pzdr, r.

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  4. po co to larum? nagonka przeciwko forex bo ma dużo niższe prowizje niż rynek akcji i co gorsza nie zarabia GPW i maklerzy, bo platformy forex to w większości zagranica?

    przecież piszą jasno: CFD są ryzykowne, możesz stracić cały kapitał. nikt niczego nie kryje. gracze wiedzą co robią. a ich straty są ograniczone do depozytu. nie ma gry na kredyt.

    PRAWDZIWY problem polskiego pseudorynku kapitałowego to nieprzejrzyste spółki giełdowe, które coś udają. Spółka A udaje że za chwileczkę, za momencik znajdzie ropę, tylko musi jeszcze wyemitować kilka serii akcji dla słupów z Cypru. Spółka B robi niby przejęcie i za ogromną kasę kupuje mikroaktywa, na koszt akcjonariuszy – udaje potem w raportach, że wszystko jest OK. Spółka C kreuje zysk z sufitu i udaje zyskowną, a jest wydmuszką. I TU JEST PROBLEM bo to są prawa majątkowe, a nie derywaty – tylko majątku nie ma. Niestety GPW i maklerzy świetnie żyją z obrotu akcjami i udają że nic się nie dzieje, a na New Connect już jest kilkaset warzywniaków.

    więc odczep się pan od forexu, bo tu zasady są jasne.

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  5. Szanowny Panie !
    Jestem laikiem w sprawach giełdy i Forex-u. Z ogromną przyjemnością czytam jednak Pańskie felietony/artykuły , które przybliżają mnie do tych tematów.
    Czekam na następne …..Pozdrawiam

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  6. Pingback: Oto, co im w bankach nie sztymuje

  7. Łukasz Baranowski – Forex/oszust

    Dzisiaj Pan Łukasz Baranowski po moim poscie usunął konto na GoldenLine. To tylko świadczy o tej osobie…

    Dzień dobry Panie Łukaszu Baranowski,

    jak tam Panu idzie trading ?

    Z tego co mi wiadomo i posiadam na to dowody, że systematycznie traci Pan pieniądze.

    Proszę uważać na tego Pana, przestrzegam przed nim wszystkich, którzy chcą współpracować z tym Panem, jak również z firmą FXLIFESTYLESIGNALS – http://fxlifestylesignals.com/performance/

    Pokazują fałszywe Statemanty.

    Mam na to dowody. Post z platformy Virex Enterprises został dzisiaj usunięty. Posiadam zrzuty ekranów.

    Z pełną odpowiedzialnością i świadomie ta osoba i ta firma oszukuje ludzi !!!!

    Z poważaniem,

    Tomasz SychowskiC

    W tej chwili firma już zmieniła nazwy str internetowej na: http://fxlifestylesignals.com/

    FXLIFESTYLESIGNALS

    Jest to, ta sama firma.

    To tylko świadczy o firmie jak działa.

    Proszę na niego uważać i nie wpłacać mu żadnych pieniędzy.

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  8. Łukasz Baranowski – Forex/oszust już się do niego dobiorą .
    Rozumiem ,że ktoś dostarczał sygnały i mu nie poszło ale jak ktoś to ronbi umyślnie i traci świadomie pieniądze ludzi to już jest skur….

    Łukasz Baranowski – Forex/oszust

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  9. 266887 979344I genuinely like this blog internet site, will undoubtedly come back once again. Make certain you carry on creating quality content material articles. 743642

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niedziela 30/10/2016
14

Dlaczego siedzenia w autobusach pokryto grubym plastikiem, na czas podróży migrantów z likwidowanej „dżungli” w Calais? Zdjęcia pasażerów na tych plastikach wywołały pewną konsternację, nawet…


Dabiq nr 15. Pozdrowienia z Państwa Islamskiego

wtorek 02/08/2016
13

Jest nowy numer Dabiqa. Oficjalny periodyk Państwa Islamskiego (PI), z hasłem „Break the cross!” na okładce, bierze na celownik chrześcijan („krzyżowców”). Atakuje papieża Franciszka. Zdarzyło…


Państwo Islamskie – feminizm i pokój

poniedziałek 30/11/2015
2

Wyszedł właśnie 12, świąteczny można powiedzieć, numer oficjalnego organu prasowego Państwa Islamskiego, Dabiq. Kredowy papier, nienaganny lojałt, wersje elektroniczne. Dabiq to w rzeczywistości wioska niedaleko…


Francuzi na Bliskim Wschodzie, czyli która armia jest najmniejsza?

czwartek 19/11/2015
12

Paru moich znajomych zainteresowało to, co mówiłem w radio po zamachach w Paryżu, więc rozwinę tu odrobinę ten temat, żeby było jasne. Francuzi walczą w…


Komunikat Państwa Islamskiego

sobota 14/11/2015
3

Oto tłumaczenie dzisiejszego oficjalnego komunikatu PI w sprawie paryskich zamachów. Dowiadujemy się ostatnio często (rosyjski samolot, zamachy w Ankarze i w Bejrucie), że PI do…


Al-Fatiha, czyli żegnaj Ojcze nasz?

sobota 03/10/2015
13

„To jak my teraz będziemy się modlić?” – zapytała ni to mnie, ni to siebie, starsza pani siedząca przy kasie w moim osiedlowym supermarkecie. Patrzyła…


Zabijanie w Biblii i Koranie

poniedziałek 23/03/2015
47

Przyprowadźcie tutaj moich wrogów, którzy nie chcieli, abym nad nimi panował, i pozabijajcie ich w mojej obecności. Jezus Chrystus (Łk 19, 27) We wszystkich pismach…


Oscar dla służącej

poniedziałek 23/02/2015
1

Rok 1940, wojna w Europie, niemiecki i amerykański rasizm w fazach triumfu. Ale tak jak Hitler - nieco wcześniej, w 1936 - dekorował medalem olimpijskim…


Dziesięciu Murzynków Al-Kaidy

środa 18/02/2015
16

Napad na kopenhaską imprezę z udziałem szwedzkiego artysty-rysownika Larsa Vilksa, który przedstawia Mahometa jako psa, znowu kieruje uwagę na problem niejednoznaczności dowcipu w ujęciu Al-Kaidy.…